Weekly Economics Report - Feb. 10, 2026
Take Five: Near, far, wherever markets are
LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The outcome of Japan's snap election, a heavy dose of key U.S. data, earnings season, and a slide in (some) tech shares suggest traders will have little downtime in the coming week.
Here is all you need to know about what's coming up in financial markets, by Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Karin Strohecker, Tommy Wilkes and Lucy Raitano in London.
1/ LANDSLIDE VICTORY
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition swept to a historic election win over the weekend, paving the way for promised tax cuts and military spending aimed at countering China.
Investors reacted by sending Japanese stocks to all-time peaks on Monday while super-long bonds reversed early weakness, in an apparent vote of confidence in Takaichi's "responsible, proactive" fiscal policy.
The yen JPY= also held its ground, as the looming threat of a potential currency intervention left traders hesitant to push it lower.
While voters have given Takaichi a huge mandate to reflate the economy, investors say she has little room to run up deficits or pressure will be quickly back on bonds and the currency.
An early test will be how she handles a pledge to suspend Japan's 8% sales tax on food and how she plans to fund it.
2/ AI SPLITS INTO WINNERS AND LOSERS
Cisco Systems CSCO.O and Germany's Siemens Energy report earnings on Wednesday.
They've benefited from the AI boom in different ways, but now Barclays says that trade is "seeing extreme dispersion". In other words, the market is sifting between the winners and losers with more conviction. The sensitivity to which companies are benefiting or suffering from AI disruption is evident in sliding software and data analytics stocks. They have plunged as traders honed in on the existential threat posed by increasingly powerful AI models. AI enablers, companies contributing to the global AI data centre build-out, meanwhile, have fared better. But with the spectre of a bubble popping and markets near record highs, it would be wise to hold onto your hats.
3/ DELAYED DATA DUMP
A double dose of major U.S. economic reports should give investors a critical view of the economy, after the releases were delayed a little by the recently ended three-day government shutdown.
The January non-farm payrolls report, now due on Wednesday, is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. The Federal Reserve pointed to signs of stabilisation in the labour market as it held rates steady last month, pausing its easing cycle.
Two days later, the January consumer price index, one of the most closely watched measures for assessing inflation trends, is set to be published. The data comes as investors gauge the impact of newly nominated Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who could take charge in time for the Fed's June meeting. Markets currently price that meeting as the likely next time for a rate cut.
4/FROM MUNICH, WITH LOVE
The Munich Security Conference gets underway on Thursday. Now in its seventh decade, the annual gathering saw possibly its most consequential - and contentious — meeting in 2025 when a series of U.S. statements set the stage for a tectonic shift in the international order still underway today.
There is no shortage of hot geopolitical issues - from Iran to Ukraine and Greenland - while questions over the future role of NATO are looming large.
But the meeting looks to stretch beyond its usual scope: The European Central Bank is working on opening up access to euro liquidity to more countries - part of efforts to bolster the single currency's international role, sources told Reuters. The announcement will likely come from ECB chief Christine Lagarde, who will open a roundtable on trade dependencies at the conference.
5/ EUROPEAN BANKS' TIME IN THE SUN OVER?
European banks have been among the best performing stocks in the past 12 months .SX7P with a more than 60% gain, aided by rising profitability, low loan defaults and a showering of shareholders with cash.
Britain's Barclays BARC.L and NatWest NWG.L and Italy's UniCredit CRDI.MI report 2025 earnings in coming days, following generally strong numbers already from Deutsche Bank DBKGn.DE and BNP Paribas BNPP.PA. The French lender and Lloyds LLOY.L also lifted their key profitability targets.
But analysts warn the good times cannot last, especially if European economies slow. Spain's BBVA BBVA.MCsaw a 7% drop in its shares on Thursday after it set aside 19% more in cash for loan losses in the fourth quarterthan a year earlier. As well as financial prospects, investors are looking for signs that bosses have an appetite to spend more of their excess capital on deals - such as Santander's recently announced $12.2 billion acquisition of U.S. lender Webster Financial WBS.N.
China's forex reserves grow more than expected in January
The country's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, rose to $3.399 trillion last month, exceeding the $3.372 trillion forecast in a Reuters poll. The reserves totalled $3.358 trillion in December.
The yuan CNY=CFXS rose 0.45% against the dollar last month, while the dollar softened 1.15% against a basket of major currencies =USD.
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